Why 'Scientific' estimation died, and why you might need it back.
Author:Sambath Kumar Natarajan(Connect)Version:1.0
Function Point Analysis (FPA): The Lost Art
The "Science" of Estimation
Before Agile gave us "Story Points" (which are basically feelings converted into Fibonacci numbers), there was Function Point Analysis (ISO/IEC 20926).
How It Works
You don't guess complexity. You count inputs and outputs.
- External Inputs (EI): Forms, screens, API receivers.
- External Outputs (EO): Reports, API responses.
- Internal Logical Files (ILF): Database tables, cache stores.
- External Interface Files (EIF): Reference data from other systems.
Formula: FP = Count * Complexity_Weight
Why It Died
- Too Slow: Counting FPs takes hours. Agile moves in minutes.
- Subjectivity: Is that "Customer Table" one logical file or three (Customer, Address, Preference)?
- The API Shift: Modern microservices have 100x more "External Interfaces" than 1990s monoliths, inflating the count wildly.
Why You Miss It
Story Points are inflation-prone currency.
- Team A's "5 points" is Team B's "13 points".
- You cannot benchmark productivity across teams.
Function Points were the Gold Standard.
- "This project is 500 FPs." is a meaningful statement to a CFO.
- "This project is 500 Story Points" implies nothing about value delivered.
The Consultant's Take
Don't use full IFPUG standards. Use "Lightweight FPA":
- Count Screens (UI).
- Count API Endpoints (Integration).
- Count Tables (Storage).
If Team A delivers 5 Screens per sprint and Team B delivers 1, no amount of "Story Point" math can hide the productivity gap.
