Rolling Wave Planning

The Fog of War

You cannot see 12 months into the future. Detailed planning for Q4 in Q1 is waste.

The Mechanism

1. Next 2 Weeks (Sprint): Micro-detail. Tasks, hours, assignees.
2. Next 3 Months (Quarter): Features. Architecture, dependencies, rough sizing.
3. Next 1 Year (Roadmap): Themes. "Move to Cloud", "Launch Mobile App". No dates.

Why Executives Hate It

"I need a commitment for the whole year!" Your Reply: "I can give you a commitment, but it will be a guess. Do you want a guess?"

The "Cone of Uncertainty"

Rolling Wave embraces the Cone.

• As you get closer to the work, the variance drops.
• You commit only when variance is manageable.