Story Points: Understanding the Challenges

The Common Misconception

"Velocity" sounds precise and scientific. However, Agile Velocity often reflects the team's confidence level rather than absolute output. It's a relative measure that works best when used for internal planning, not external comparisons.

The Point Inflation Pattern

Sprint 1: "Login Screen" = 5 Points. Sprint 10: "Fix Typo" = 5 Points.

Why does this happen?

1. Pressure for Improvement: Teams face expectations to show "Higher Velocity".
2. Goodhart's Law: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure."
3. Natural Drift: As teams gain experience, their baseline for complexity shifts.

The " Ron Jeffries" Apology

Ron Jeffries, one of the creators of XP (and points), has famously apologized:

"I may have invented story points, and if I did, I’m sorry now."

A Better Approach: Throughput

Consider counting completed items instead of points.

• Little's Law: WIP = Throughput × Cycle Time
• To improve flow, focus on reducing work in progress rather than perfecting estimates.

Example from Indian IT Services

Many teams in Bangalore and Hyderabad have found success tracking "features shipped per sprint" rather than velocity points. This provides clearer communication with stakeholders.

Practical Recommendation

Consider using Cycle Time Scatterplots instead of velocity charts in stakeholder meetings.

• "Features typically take 8 days from start to deployment" → Clear and actionable
• "We completed 40 points last sprint" → Requires context and explanation